Gli impegni verso l’estero sono cresciuti del 23% a 1416 miliardi. Nuovi investimenti ed una valutazione piu elevata dei titoli hanno rappresentato i fattori determinanti di questa forte crescita. La quota degli investimenti denominati in franchi svizzeri e stata del 15% per gli attivi (19% nel 1998) e del 54% per i passivi (61% nel 1998). L’inflazione soggiacente in Svizzera (p. 66) Quest’articolo presenta due metodi sovente utilizzati per il calcolo dell’inflazione soggiacente, applicandoli ai dati trimestrali per la Svizzera nel periodo dal primo trimestre del 1983 al primo trimestre del 2000. La crescita della massa monetaria M3 risulta piu strettamente correlata con l’evoluzione futura dell’inflazione soggiacente piuttosto che con la variazione dell’indice dei prezzi al consumo. Appare anche che alcune definizioni dell’inflazione soggiacente sono piu strettamente correlate con l’evoluzione futura dell’indice dei prezzi al consumo che non l’inflazione misurata con questo stesso indice. Si ottengono risultati incoraggianti soprattutto per i tassi d’inflazione soggiacente calcolati come medie corrette. Oltre una determinata soglia, la grandezza del parametro di correzione scelto sembra essere irrilevante. Monetary policy assessment at year-end (p. 8) On 8 December 2000, the Swiss National Bank, in agreement with the Federal Government, decided to adhere to its current monetary policy. It will leave the target range for the three-month Libor rate, which has stood at 3%–4% since 15 June 2000, unchanged and, for the time being, keep the three-month rate in the middle of the target band. Since there are no discernible signs of a long-term threat to price stability, the National Bank refrains from another tightening of monetary policy. It expects that the economy will continue to expand, though at a slower pace. After a growth rate of 3.3% during the current year, it projects real gross domestic product to increase by 2.2% in 2001. The latest inflation forecast still gives a favourable picture of the future inflation trend. On average, the National Bank expects inflation to rise from 1.6% in 2000 to 2.1% in 2001. In the course of 2002, inflation is likely to drop below 2% again, i.e. to a level which the National Bank equates with price stability. The expected temporary deviation from the target of price stability can be explained by the vigorous acceleration of economic activity during the current year and, above all, by the massive rise in oil prices. Economic and monetary developments (p. 12) Following a surge of activity in the first half of 2000, the expansive forces in the OECD area weakened somewhat in the second half of the year. The significantly higher oil prices and the tighter monetary policy, with which the central banks of the industrialised countries endeavoured to prevent inflationary overheating, slowed down business activity. In the third quarter, the Swiss economy continued to develop at the more leisurely pace it had adopted in the second quarter. Compared with the previous year, real gross domestic product grew by 3.6% in the third quarter as against 3.8% in the second quarter. The economic upswing remained broadly based. Exports exhibited particularly dynamic development although domestic demand, notably private consumption and plant and equipment expenditure, also contributed to economic growth. Employment continued to rise, and unemployment figures declined once more. Annual inflation measured by consumer prices receded by 0.6 percentage points to 1.3% between July and October. Higher rents and a renewed rise in oil prices caused inflation to move up again to 1.9% in November. The National Bank left the target range for the 3-month Libor rate unchanged at 3%–4% in the third quarter. Swiss money market rates thus remained stable, on the whole. The yields on Confederation bonds with a residual maturity of 10 years also changed only negligibly. Direct investment in 1999 (p. 40) Capital exports for direct investment abroad mounted by Sfr 27.2 billion to Sfr 54 billion in 1999. Capital holdings abroad grew by 21% to Sfr 308 billion. The number of persons employed in foreign subsidiaries and participations was unchanged at 1.61 million. Capital imports for direct investment in Switzerland increased by Sfr 4.1 billion to Sfr 17.1 billion. Foreign capital holdings rose by 25.7% to Sfr 124.6 billion. Switzerland’s investment position in 1999 (p. 60) Switzerland’s net investment position mounted by Sfr 62 billion to Sfr 556 billion in 1999. Foreign assets expanded by 20% to Sfr 1972 billion. Liabilities increased by 23% to Sfr 1416 billion. Of decisive importance for the strong growth were new investments and the higher valuation of securities. 15% (previous year: 19%) of all foreign assets and 54% (61%) of liabilities were held in Swiss francs. Core inflation in Switzerland (p. 66) In this paper, two popular measures of core inflation are discussed and calculated using Swiss quarterly data for the 1983:1–2000:1 period. It is shown that the growth rates of the monetary aggregate M3 are in general more tightly correlated with future movements in core inflation than with unadjusted CPI inflation. Further evidence shows that several definitions of core inflation move closer with future CPI inflation than with CPI inflation itself. The most encouraging results are with the trimmed mean measures of core inflation, yet the size of the cut-off tails does not appear to matter for our findings. Declarations de Hans Meyer, president de la Direction generale de la Banque nationale suisse, a la conference de presse que la Direction generale a donnee a Zurich, le 8 decembre 2000. La Banque nationale a decide, en accord avec le Conseil federal, de poursuivre sa politique monetaire actuelle. Elle laissera inchangee la marge de fluctuation du Libor a trois mois, qui est de 3 a 4% depuis le 15 juin 2000, et maintiendra, jusqu’a nouvel avis, le taux a trois mois dans la zone mediane de la marge de fluctuation. La Banque nationale ne prevoit pas un nouveau resserrement de sa politique monetaire, car rien n’indique que la stabilite du niveau des prix est menacee a moyen terme. La plus recente prevision d’inflation (voir graphique) reste sur des perspectives favorables. Pour l’essentiel, elle correspond a l’evolution du rencherissement que nous avions prevue en juin 2000. La correction apportee il y a quelques jours a l’indice suisse des prix a la consommation n’a guere influe sur notre prevision d’inflation. Si la marge de fluctuation du Libor a trois mois est maintenue inchangee, le rencherissement devrait passer legerement au-dessus de 2% au milieu de 2001, puis retomber sous cette barre au cours de l’annee 2002. Nous nous attendons a ce que le rencherissement moyen passe de 1,6% en 2000 a 2,1% en 2001, puis de nouveau a 1,7% en 2003. Un taux annuel d’inflation de 2%, nous l’avons maintes fois souligne, est a la limite superieure de la zone que nous assimilons a la stabilite des prix. L’ecart temporaire qui devrait etre observe par rapport a la stabilite des prix est du a l’evolution vigoureuse de la conjoncture en 2000 et, surtout, a la hausse massive des prix des produits petroliers. Nous partons de l’idee que ceux-ci diminueront de nouveau au cours de 2001 ou se stabiliseront pour le moins a leur niveau actuel, qui est eleve il est vrai. Les pressions a la hausse sur les prix restent moderees. Cela peut surprendre etant donne la bonne conjoncture dont beneficie l’economie suisse.